Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

5F 0x5ff3…5125 crypto 21 markets active 1d ago coverage 618d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$758 (-4%) realized −$758 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate95%20W / 1L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$810per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$14

14 days+$17

30 days+$17

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	9	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	9	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	21	-0.5%	-10.0%	95%	0%	-13.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.0%	0%	-13.6%
10%	-18.6%	0%	-21.8%
15%	-26.4%	0%	-29.4%
20%	-33.7%	0%	-36.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,030) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -1% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$780 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$758

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses20 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage618d

Avg bet$810

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	Jun 23	$2,041	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	Jun 23	$532	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$1,356	+$3	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?	Jun 22	$1,212	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?	Jun 18	$1,030	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?	Jun 18	$511	+$4	+1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?	Jun 18	$1,020	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$687	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$1,871	+$2	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?	Jun 05	$30	$0	+1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May?	Jun 05	$70	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	Jun 05	$103	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	Jun 05	$140	$0	+0%
Dogecoin all time high in April?	May 16	$5	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	May 16	$6	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April?	May 16	$30	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?	May 16	$91	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	May 16	$210	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	Apr 04	$521	+$1	+0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	Feb 04	$519	+$2	+0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 24	$5,023	−$780	-16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,041	32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23?	BUY No	100¢	$532	32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	BUY No	100¢	$1,356	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,212	2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,030	6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,020	6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18?	BUY No	99¢	$511	6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,871	8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$687	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May?	BUY No	100¢	$103	404d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$140	404d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$70	404d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$30	404d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$210	431d
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April?	BUY No	100¢	$91	431d
Will Solana reach $300 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$6	431d
Dogecoin all time high in April?	BUY No	100¢	$5	431d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$30	431d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$287	459d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$234	459d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$134	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$50	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$96	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$101	517d
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	100¢	$139	517d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$61	608d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$121	608d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$74	608d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$120	608d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	38¢	$83	608d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records