Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5ffe…7473 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-15%) realized −$165 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%33W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$191
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$188
sports 23% −$25
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -41.0% -46.7% 25% 24% -30.4%
≤30d 113 -31.1% -37.6% 29% 28% -27.1%
≤90d 113 -31.1% -37.6% 29% 28% -27.1%
all 113 -31.1% -37.6% 29% 28% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 28% -27.1%
10% -43.6% 26% -34.0%
15% -49.1% 22% -40.4%
20% -54.0% 14% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses33 / 80
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)113 / 117
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 36¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Second half draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $35 +$6 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 +$5 +22%
Haiti to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 24 $5 +$30 +582%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$14 +68%
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 +$12 +41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$9 +58%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$12 +231%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 23 $22 −$20 -90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$14 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +54%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$8 +164%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +43%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +29%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $11 +$27 +242%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 73¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY No 79¢ $35 3h
Haiti to score first vs. Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 4h
Haiti to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $35 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 7h
Scotland to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 22h
Qatar to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
DR Congo to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.10 · official $36.10 (match) · 268 history records