Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6004…d30f crypto 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-2%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%144W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$443
14 days+$443
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$438
other 1% +$19
sports 0% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 51% +0.8%
≤30d 80 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 51% +0.8%
≤90d 210 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 43% -12.2%
all 210 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 43% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 43% -12.2%
10% -20.7% 27% -20.6%
15% -28.4% 19% -28.3%
20% -35.4% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$37 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses144 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage64d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$157 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$50 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $141 +$24 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$44 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $204 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$40 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$49 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 492 history records