Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6005…b8be world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+8%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$8
other 38% $0
crypto 10% +$76
politics 10% +$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 11 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 18 -2.2% -11.5% 17% 0% -11.1%
all 31 +60.7% +45.4% 45% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.4% 3% -8.0%
10% +31.4% 3% -16.8%
15% +18.7% 3% -24.9%
20% +7.1% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.01 per $1 lost it wins $7.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage467d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $24 −$6 -26%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $11 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $72 −$2 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $35 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 21 $6 −$1 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $92 +$1 +1%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $88 +$1 +2%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 18 $1 +$75 +7592%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $5 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $5 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $8 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $28 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $30 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $7 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records