Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6006…c4f8 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%64W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$13
crypto 22% +$2
politics 21% $0
weather 6% $0
world 2% −$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 69 -2.5% -11.8% 93% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses64 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage543d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? Jun 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? Jun 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 29 $70 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-7 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 10? May 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 29? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 2? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,150 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on April 25 Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C or below on April 20 Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 19? Apr 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? Apr 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 14? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 10? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 10? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on April 6? Apr 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $56 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 19? Mar 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Mar 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Mar 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Oct 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting? Oct 14 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo visit Mexico first? Oct 14 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $704 −$1 -0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? May 06 $4 $0 +2%
Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs on EU before Wednesday? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Kanye's music pulled from Spotify before April? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before April? Apr 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $10 $0 +1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $94 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $70 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $70 34d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $42 47d
Will claude-opus-4-7 have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 47d
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store BUY No 100¢ $12 51d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 51d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $24 51d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $33 51d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $14 59d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 59d
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $25 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $19 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $14 64d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on April 25 BUY No 100¢ $16 64d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,150 Week of April 20 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 64d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 69d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 69d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 12°C or below on April 20 BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 69d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 74d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 74d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $28 78d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $17 78d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $18 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of April 6 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $25 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.95 · official $93.95 (match) · 143 history records