Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x600d…b5ce crypto 97 markets active 3d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+13%) realized +$107 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%44W / 52L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$42
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$10
other 36% +$101
crypto 20% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.9% +3.1% 57% 43% +6.9%
≤30d 38 -13.2% -21.5% 47% 45% -12.4%
≤90d 96 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 43% +2.5%
all 96 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 43% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% +2.5%
10% -23.2% 40% -7.3%
15% -30.6% 35% -16.3%
20% -37.4% 30% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses44 / 52
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage30d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$16 +119%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$10 -46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$19 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $5 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$9 +76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 +$9 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $9 +$16 +172%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $17 −$6 -36%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4 +$5 +124%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $11 +$10 +90%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 24 $7 +$5 +63%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 19 $23 −$14 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $3 +$7 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $13 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $3 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $14 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 26¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 38¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $11 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $11 9d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 34¢ $7 9d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 11d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 36¢ $9 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 46¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 52¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $8 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.34 · official $25.34 (match) · 226 history records