Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x600f…0c61 crypto 1429 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,641 (-5%) realized −$1,641 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%843W / 831L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,427
7 days−$1,409
14 days−$1,659
30 days−$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -84.6% -86.0% 8% 6% -38.2%
≤30d 481 -56.8% -60.9% 22% 19% -29.4%
≤90d 1568 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 32% -14.4%
all 1674 -17.2% -25.0% 50% 30% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 30% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 29% -21.9%
15% -38.8% 28% -29.5%
20% -44.8% 27% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,641
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses843 / 831
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1674 / 1429
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1674 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 6, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$13 -233%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records