Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

60 0x6010…d2ed crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4 (-6%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip

Net edge-86%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-84.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-83.3%	-84.9%	0%	0%	-87.9%
≤30d	2	-83.3%	-84.9%	0%	0%	-87.9%
≤90d	2	-83.3%	-84.9%	0%	0%	-87.9%
all	2	-83.3%	-84.9%	0%	0%	-87.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-84.9%	0%	-87.9%
10%	-86.4%	0%	-89.0%
15%	-87.7%	0%	-90.1%
20%	-88.9%	0%	-91.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -87% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -83% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$7 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	64¢	64¢	$51	$51	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 26	$7	−$4	-67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	64¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	2h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	22h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$0	22h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$2	22h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$2	22h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.80 · official $50.80 (match) · 8 history records