Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

60 0x6010…d130 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$45 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit16%portable

Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$28

7 days−$28

14 days+$119

30 days−$64

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+31.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-40.6%	-46.2%	0%	0%	-46.2%
≤30d	4	+72.0%	+55.6%	25%	25%	-24.4%
≤90d	6	+14.7%	+3.7%	17%	17%	-29.8%
all	14	+44.9%	+31.1%	36%	36%	-7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.1%	36%	-7.9%
10%	+18.6%	36%	-16.7%
15%	+7.1%	36%	-24.8%
20%	-3.4%	36%	-32.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +92% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$35 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage

Net worth$178

Realized+$45

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)14 / 19

History coverage131d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$100	$89	−$11 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$27	$18	−$9 (-32%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$69	−$28	-41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$19	−$8	-42%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$35	+$155	+439%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$267	−$183	-69%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	Apr 07	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 04	$21	−$21	-98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19?	Mar 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25?	Mar 22	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26?	Mar 22	$15	−$15	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main	Mar 21	$40	+$34	+85%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	Mar 18	$44	−$13	-30%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Mar 10	$21	+$79	+376%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-07?	Mar 07	$23	+$41	+178%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 17	$9	+$21	+233%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$41	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	29¢	$41	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	47¢	$69	2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$27	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$31	2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	17¢	$11	8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	28¢	$19	8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Ilia Topuria	24¢	$101	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Ilia Topuria	20¢	$14	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	1¢	$5	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	55¢	$76	13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$30	13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	SELL Yes	13¢	$83	29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$48	29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	40¢	$219	29d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	82d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04?	BUY Yes	44¢	$21	85d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main	SELL Movsar Evloev	100¢	$74	98d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main	BUY Movsar Evloev	54¢	$40	98d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	SELL Yes	7¢	$31	102d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?	BUY Yes	10¢	$44	102d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	110d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	21¢	$21	110d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-07?	SELL Yes	100¢	$64	113d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-07?	BUY Yes	36¢	$23	113d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	122d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	123d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19?	BUY Yes	30¢	$26	129d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.27 · official $178.27 (match) · 40 history records