trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$2 | +111% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 22 | $10 | −$4 | -41% |
| Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 | May 21 | $1 | $0 | -18% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 14 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 12 | $2 | $0 | +19% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 11 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 11 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +23% |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -55% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | -27% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 07 | $2 | +$1 | +44% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? | May 06 | $2 | +$2 | +101% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 27 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | Apr 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +64.2% | +48.5% | 100% | 100% | +58.9% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 57% | 43% | -31.0% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 41% | 36% | -16.3% |
| all | 22 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 41% | 36% | -16.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 36% | -16.3% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 18% | -24.3% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 14% | -31.6% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 9% | -38.3% |