Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
60 0x6011…b31e weather 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14,718 (+10%) realized +$14,064 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate98%530W / 9L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$897
7 days+$3,267
14 days+$9,206
30 days+$14,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$14,075
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +5.2% -4.8% 99% 11% -3.7%
≤30d 528 +8.8% -1.5% 99% 22% -1.0%
≤90d 536 +8.0% -2.3% 99% 22% -1.0%
all 539 +8.1% -2.2% 98% 22% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 22% -1.0%
10% -11.5% 9% -10.5%
15% -20.1% 4% -19.1%
20% -27.9% 2% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×82.21 per $1 lost it wins $82.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses530 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)539 / 539
History coverage102d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 539 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $400 +$55 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $274 +$35 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1,471 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $297 +$21 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $285 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 14 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $430 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $468 +$110 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $277 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $564 +$62 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $381 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $452 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $623 +$39 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $474 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $328 +$30 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $223 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $294 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $155 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $160 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $339 +$43 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $260 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,476 +$100 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $248 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $129 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $330 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $267 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $575 +$37 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $314 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $533 +$82 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $185 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $563 +$27 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $317 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,474 +$72 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $417 +$11 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 27? Jun 13 $64 −$34 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $392 +$169 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $589 +$471 +80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $634 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $174 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $239 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $455 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $400 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $309 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $274 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $371 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $396 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $190 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $400 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $44 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1,471 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $318 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $297 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $188 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $285 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2004 history records