Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

60 0x6017…1d1b other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$323 (+50%) realized +$322 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$314

7 days+$314

14 days+$317

30 days+$317

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+1.3%	-8.4%	60%	60%	+40.3%
≤30d	17	+4.5%	-5.4%	65%	59%	+39.5%
≤90d	17	+4.5%	-5.4%	65%	59%	+39.5%
all	17	+4.5%	-5.4%	65%	59%	+39.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.4%	59%	+39.5%
10%	-14.5%	53%	+26.1%
15%	-22.7%	53%	+13.9%
20%	-30.3%	47%	+2.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$6 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.54 per $1 lost it wins $10.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$61

Realized+$322

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage10d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$27	+54%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$14	+134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner	Jun 20	$1	$0	+42%
Germany to win the second half?	Jun 20	$20	+$16	+77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$105	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$37	+73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 20	$2	−$2	-100%
Germany leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$50	+$6	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$36	+70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$107	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 11	$5	+$3	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 11	$10	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$24	6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner	BUY Germany	70¢	$1	12h
Germany to win the second half?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	12h
Germany to win the second half?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	12h
Germany leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	12h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$5	26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	26h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees	BUY Cincinnati Reds	0¢	$1	29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$5	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.14 · official $61.14 (match) · 42 history records