Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x601d…4987 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-16%) realized +$11 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$19
other 33% −$1
politics 25% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.6% +45.3% 75% 75% +52.6%
≤30d 4 +60.6% +45.3% 75% 75% +52.6%
≤90d 4 +60.6% +45.3% 75% 75% +52.6%
all 4 +60.6% +45.3% 75% 75% +52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.3% 75% +52.6%
10% +31.4% 75% +38.0%
15% +18.7% 75% +24.7%
20% +7.1% 75% +12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 55¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 50¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$7 +128%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$3 -56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $20 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $17 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 4h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.26 · official $60.26 (match) · 13 history records