Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6021…8ca2 crypto 1407 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$110,672 (-381%) realized −$110,672 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%1013W / 394L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day118.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 53% -11.7%
≤30d 1407 -2.5% -11.8% 72% 48% -13.2%
≤90d 1407 -2.5% -11.8% 72% 48% -13.2%
all 1407 -2.5% -11.8% 72% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -21.5%
15% -28.0% 14% -29.1%
20% -35.0% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110,672
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1013 / 394
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1407 / 1407
History coverage26d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day118.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1407 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$10 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$12 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records