Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x6023…cfd8 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 10% −$4
other 6% −$15
sports 1% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.4% +16.1% 25% 25% +8.4%
≤30d 14 +8.0% -2.2% 14% 7% -6.7%
≤90d 45 -6.1% -15.0% 20% 13% -10.6%
all 55 -5.2% -14.2% 20% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 11% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 11% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 9% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage550d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $45 +$2 +3%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 +$9 +105%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $14 +$4 +31%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $23 +$2 +9%
Naples: Michele Ribecai vs Federico Bondioli Mar 30 $18 +$21 +113%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 24 $22 +$18 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $84 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,553 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 22 $40 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $9 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 27d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.08 · official $52.08 (match) · 199 history records