Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6027…4320 sports 1174 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184,879 (-18%) realized −$185,017 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%678W / 789L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$862per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$6,954est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125,496
7 days−$125,483
14 days−$125,483
30 days−$332,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$124,334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -91.5% -92.4% 4% 4% -96.3%
≤30d 495 -65.4% -68.7% 17% 17% -75.5%
≤90d 1192 -23.2% -30.5% 43% 36% -47.9%
all 1467 -17.6% -25.4% 46% 39% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 39% -29.7%
10% -32.6% 36% -36.5%
15% ← realistic here -39.1% 32% -42.6%
20% -45.0% 29% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$718 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$4,845
Realized−$185,017
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses678 / 789
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$6,954
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1467 / 1174
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$862
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $1,884 $2,064 +$180 (+10%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 52¢ $630 $661 +$31 (+5%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 74¢ 66¢ $698 $624 −$74 (-11%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 58¢ $342 $377 +$36 (+10%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 70¢ 100¢ $133 $189 +$56 (+42%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Atlanta Dream 74¢ 58¢ $199 $156 −$43 (-21%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 66¢ $104 $111 +$7 (+6%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) Indiana Fever 51¢ 98¢ $33 $63 +$30 (+91%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Under 36¢ 34¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Under 33¢ 26¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-21%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants No 57¢ 56¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ 56¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 45¢ 86¢ $11 $21 +$10 (+90%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 25¢ 27¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Texas Rangers 59¢ 63¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 55¢ 24¢ $32 $13 −$18 (-58%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 52¢ 57¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Los Angeles Sparks 25¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lafayette Leopards vs. Colgate Raiders Jun 28 $655 −$653 -100%
Spread: Austin Peay Governors (-4.5) Jun 28 $347 −$347 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers Jun 28 $296 −$296 -100%
North Dakota State Bison vs. St. Thomas (MN) Tommies Jun 28 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 28 $360 −$360 -100%
Spread: NJIT Highlanders (-3.5) Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
South Florida Bulls vs. Rice Owls (W) Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Jun 28 $221 −$221 -100%
Evansville Aces vs. Belmont Bruins (W) Jun 28 $351 −$351 -100%
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Rice Owls (W) Jun 28 $333 −$333 -100%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 143.5 Jun 28 $154 −$154 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 28 $813 −$813 -100%
Iona Gaels vs. Merrimack College Warriors: O/U 137.5 Jun 28 $407 −$407 -100%
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats: O/U 159.5 Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Little Rock Trojans (-2.5) Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Southern Jaguars vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 28 $123 −$123 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Central Eagles Jun 28 $113 −$112 -99%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Hofstra Pride Jun 28 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 152.5 Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5 Jun 28 $183 −$183 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $1,487 −$1,487 -100%
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $918 −$918 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 28 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-8.5) Jun 28 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Eastern Kentucky Colonels (-4.5) Jun 28 $138 −$138 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Brandon Miller: Points O/U 20.5 Jun 28 $490 −$490 -100%
Spread: Davidson Wildcats (-9.5) Jun 28 $1,555 −$1,555 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 28 $191 −$191 -100%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. VCU Rams Jun 28 $330 −$330 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 28 $356 −$356 -100%
Spread: Yale Bulldogs (-9.5) Jun 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Wagner Seahawks: O/U 140.5 Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. USC Upstate Spartans Jun 28 $685 −$685 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-1.5) Jun 28 $110 −$110 -100%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $456 −$456 -100%
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. California Baptist Lancers Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Jun 28 $1,116 −$1,110 -100%
Spread: Eastern Kentucky Colonels (-1.5) Jun 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Jun 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Ducks vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Southern Jaguars (-3.5) Jun 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
East Carolina Pirates vs. Charlotte 49ers Jun 28 $293 −$293 -100%
Auburn Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers Jun 28 $1,996 −$1,996 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $16 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 36¢ $41 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 33¢ $32 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Sa BUY No 57¢ $23 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 25¢ $20 3h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 59¢ $16 6h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P BUY No 54¢ $4 7h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $109 7h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Atlanta Dream 75¢ $98 8h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 54¢ $33 9h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. De BUY No 49¢ $45 10h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $18 11h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $16 12h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 70¢ $134 12h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $639 23h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $2,196 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2 26h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $24 27h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $32 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $8 27h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $16 27h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $16 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $29 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $29 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $13 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $13 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $29 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2 28h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $12 28h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 60¢ $55 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,845.15 · official $4,845.16 (match) · 3500 history records