Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x602b…aa59 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$2
world 23% −$3
other 21% +$4
sports 12% +$14
finance 4% −$18
weather 2% −$28
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.6% 40% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 21 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.7%
all 35 +9.9% -0.6% 43% 14% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 14% -11.1%
10% -10.1% 14% -19.6%
15% -18.8% 11% -27.4%
20% -26.7% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage527d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $41 −$4 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$13 -13%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $12 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $60 −$18 -30%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $190 +$14 +7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 11 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $228 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $250 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 20 $7 −$1 -10%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $1 $0 -41%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview? Feb 03 $3 +$2 +67%
Less than 350 Detainers Lodged in next ICE update? Feb 03 $6 +$2 +35%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 03 $7 +$8 +108%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 24 $1 +$1 +96%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 22 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $2 +$8 +376%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $42 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $42 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $15 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records