Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x602c…2180 crypto 553 markets active 7h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+5%) realized +$135 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%273W / 279L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$144
14 days+$45
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$65
sports 1% −$23
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 44% -2.5%
≤30d 552 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 552 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 44% -8.3%
all 552 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 44% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 39% -17.1%
15% -28.7% 35% -25.1%
20% -35.7% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses273 / 279
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)552 / 553
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 30¢ 86¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$12 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.88 (match) · 2094 history records