Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x602c…6951 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-5%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%70W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$120
crypto 22% −$7
other 2% +$5
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 48% -11.6%
≤30d 42 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 48% -11.6%
≤90d 42 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 48% -11.6%
all 141 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 43% -17.5%
10% -15.6% 35% -25.4%
15% -23.8% 30% -32.6%
20% -31.2% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses70 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage205d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +129%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$9 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +146%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 29 $166 −$37 -22%
Giants vs. Raiders Dec 28 $211 +$15 +7%
76ers vs. Thunder Dec 28 $75 +$17 +22%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 28 $8 −$3 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 395 history records