Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x602e…20d8 crypto 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%92W / 140L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$112
30 days−$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,398
world 0% −$26
culture 0% −$10
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -32.9% -39.3% 50% 50% -50.2%
≤30d 35 -36.6% -42.6% 29% 29% -28.6%
≤90d 167 -21.2% -28.7% 37% 34% -12.9%
all 232 -19.6% -27.3% 40% 36% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 36% -13.8%
10% -34.2% 31% -22.1%
15% -40.6% 23% -29.6%
20% -46.4% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$73 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses92 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage102d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $326 −$105 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $127 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 23 $45 −$11 -24%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 22 $210 −$97 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 22 $222 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $96 +$67 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 19 $317 −$111 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 19 $293 −$76 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $132 +$96 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $9 −$4 -41%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 19 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $313 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 18 $210 +$122 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 18 $121 +$43 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 18 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 13 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 12 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $79 −$79 -100%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 09 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $34 +$46 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 09 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $140 −$56 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $136 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $125 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $96 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $87 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $105 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $75 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $72 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $51 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 933 history records