Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x602e…621d world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$3
other 15% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% −$1
culture 6% +$1
economics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 83% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -8.9%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage268d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $59 +$3 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $3 −$1 -25%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 30 $22 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $1 +$1 +36%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $16 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $21 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $19 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $15 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $23 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.48 · official $35.48 (match) · 182 history records