Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6033…e36b other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
world 33% −$1
politics 10% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 42 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage280d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $31 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $2 $0 -7%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 22 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $34 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $34 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $17 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $12 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $25 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $5 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $11 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $19 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $17 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $30 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $30 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $34 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $34 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $30 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $31 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $34 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $34 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $34 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $34 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $20 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $20 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records