Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x6036…2447 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$953 (+42%) realized +$953 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR82%break-even

Win rate82%9W / 2L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$189per market

Trades / day8.5pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +82%

net ROI/market (all)+4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+15.3%	+4.3%	82%	82%	+28.6%
≤30d	11	+15.3%	+4.3%	82%	82%	+28.6%
≤90d	11	+15.3%	+4.3%	82%	82%	+28.6%
all	11	+15.3%	+4.3%	82%	82%	+28.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.3%	82%	+28.6%
10%	-5.7%	64%	+16.3%
15%	-14.8%	36%	+5.1%
20%	-23.2%	27%	-5.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$9 · ×11.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×51.33 per $1 lost it wins $51.33

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$953

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses9 / 2

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$189

Trades / day8.5

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	58¢	58¢	$49	$49	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$157	+$19	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$127	+$31	+24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 19	$108	+$19	+17%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	Jun 19	$66	+$42	+64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$50	+$16	+32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$9	−$9	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$763	+$246	+32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$433	+$329	+76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$310	+$123	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$183	+$128	+70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY FURIA	58¢	$50	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$176	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$157	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$157	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$127	6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$127	6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	85¢	$108	7h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$108	7h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$66	10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	100¢	$66	10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	75¢	$50	30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$9	30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL FURIA	100¢	$1,008	33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	75¢	$186	37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	75¢	$577	37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$762	37h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	56¢	$433	42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$310	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$310	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$183	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.42 · official $49.42 (match) · 22 history records