Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6037…eede crypto 358 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$437 (-3%) realized −$474 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%229W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$406
other 3% +$45
sports 1% −$31
finance 1% −$70
politics 1% −$34
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.4% -1.0% 67% 42% +2.5%
≤30d 54 -9.5% -18.2% 57% 35% -12.7%
≤90d 60 -11.0% -19.5% 57% 37% -15.4%
all 355 -6.1% -15.0% 65% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 42% -12.8%
10% -23.2% 23% -21.2%
15% -30.6% 13% -28.8%
20% -37.4% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses229 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)355 / 358
History coverage249d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $81 $108 +$27 (+33%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+51%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$4 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$6 -23%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$11 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 55m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $48 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $13 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.42 · official $148.39 (match) · 949 history records