Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x6038…2130 crypto 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,552 (+10%) realized +$1,554 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%126W / 154L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$779
sports 32% +$1,349
other 21% +$996
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -38.2% -44.0% 25% 25% -48.3%
≤30d 16 -38.2% -44.0% 25% 25% -48.3%
≤90d 16 -38.2% -44.0% 25% 25% -48.3%
all 280 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 43% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 43% -0.5%
10% -17.7% 41% -10.1%
15% -25.7% 39% -18.7%
20% -32.9% 33% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$39 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$1,554
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses126 / 154
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 286
History coverage189d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $20 +$54 +262%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $11 +$4 +40%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $112 −$110 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$13 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 16 $65 −$64 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 16 $40 −$39 -97%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 16 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 16 $15 +$11 +73%
Towson Tigers vs. Monmouth Hawks Feb 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Oregon State Beavers vs. Seattle Redhawks Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$20 +99%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $140 +$86 +61%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 13 $20 +$39 +193%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $100 +$77 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 19 $20 +$5 +27%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 10 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $39 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists AN BUY 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. BUY 22¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $112 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Morocco vs. Hait BUY 34¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.58 · official $76.58 (match) · 632 history records