Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6040…0054 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-6%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.2% -16.1% 68% 45% -13.2%
≤30d 22 -7.2% -16.1% 68% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 22 -7.2% -16.1% 68% 45% -13.2%
all 22 -7.2% -16.1% 68% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 45% -13.2%
10% -24.1% 18% -21.5%
15% -31.4% 14% -29.1%
20% -38.2% 14% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $77 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $62 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records