Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6040…4c57 crypto 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$264 (-1%) realized −$264 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%147W / 81L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$550
sports 32% −$42
other 14% −$310
tech 14% −$404
finance 1% −$103
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.3% -24.3% 62% 21% -9.4%
≤30d 66 -12.3% -20.7% 64% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 192 -7.5% -16.3% 67% 36% -11.2%
all 228 -6.4% -15.4% 64% 34% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -10.9%
10% -23.5% 17% -19.4%
15% -30.9% 10% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses147 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)228 / 228
History coverage168d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 228 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $209 +$50 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$91 -30%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $291 +$8 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $269 +$23 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $200 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $64 +$4 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $50 −$36 -71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $155 +$8 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $122 +$32 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$10 -8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $125 +$7 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $243 +$3 +1%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $111 +$11 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 +$6 +6%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $86 +$21 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $161 −$7 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $20 −$17 -84%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $67 +$7 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $55 +$31 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$21 -83%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +10%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $10 −$3 -31%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $27 −$4 -14%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $12 +$2 +16%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $7 +$5 +65%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $13 +$1 +10%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $10 −$9 -92%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $10 −$5 -45%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 28 $7 +$3 +42%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Hong Kong, China May 28 $12 −$11 -93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $6 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $60 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $19 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $259 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $209 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $209 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $300 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $291 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $269 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $201 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $68 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $64 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 26¢ $14 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 89¢ $50 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $162 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $155 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $155 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $122 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 83¢ $122 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $131 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Rwanda 100¢ $132 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Rwanda 95¢ $125 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $121 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $122 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $122 3d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $3 3d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 91¢ $111 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 100¢ $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 579 history records