Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6040…6355 crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$11 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%110W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 51% -11.3%
≤30d 214 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 214 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 43% -13.4%
all 214 -11.1% -19.5% 51% 43% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 43% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 39% -21.7%
15% -34.3% 35% -29.3%
20% -40.7% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses110 / 104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)214 / 216
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 56¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $2.47 · 496 history records