Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6045…ce33 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
other 20% +$3
finance 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 0% -8.8%
all 20 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 10% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 10% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.66 per $1 lost it wins $5.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $64 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $28 +$2 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $1 $0 +15%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Momo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 24 $1 $0 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $28 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 25d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $13 358d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 358d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 375d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? SELL Yes $0 389d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records