trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +134% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$6 | -94% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $3 | +$2 | +56% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$2 | -66% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -50% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +114% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY A | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? | Feb 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -14.8% | -22.9% | 40% | 30% | -11.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -13.5% | -21.7% | 36% | 27% | -11.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -13.5% | -21.7% | 36% | 27% | -11.7% |
| all | 18 | -47.1% | -52.2% | 22% | 17% | -52.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -52.2% | 17% | -52.0% |
| 10% | -56.8% | 17% | -56.6% |
| 15% | -60.9% | 17% | -60.8% |
| 20% | -64.8% | 17% | -64.7% |