Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
60 0x6049…f14f sports 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (514 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19,441 (-1%) realized −$19,472 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%352W / 1L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$6,537per market
Trades / day514.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$62,418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2,069
other 4% +$163
crypto 1% +$27
weather 1% +$925
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (514 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 353 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 353 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 353 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover514.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$8,039) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×217.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76413.91 per $1 lost it wins $76413.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$62,418
Realized−$19,472
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses352 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$6,537
Trades / day514.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 100¢ 100¢ $62,387 $62,418 +$31 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $239 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,642 +$2 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,385 +$5 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2,971 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $285 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $79,993 +$60 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $104,802 +$105 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,245 +$2 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $49,189 +$49 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,920 +$7 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $8,739 +$9 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,635 +$3 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $421 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30,887 +$31 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,829 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $7,657 +$84 +1%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $376 $0 +0%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,706 +$5 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $35,129 +$35 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $11,702 +$12 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $480 $0 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5,836 +$6 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,680 +$11 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33,974 +$34 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $41,807 +$42 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10,906 +$11 +0%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $5,243 +$5 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $33,548 +$34 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $13,912 +$14 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $65,270 +$65 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9,427 +$9 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $696 +$1 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $2,947 +$3 +0%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $204 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16,935 +$17 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $90,773 +$91 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $16,935 +$17 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $40 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $20 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $2,681 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $1 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $95 2m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $744 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $50 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $92 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $4,743 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $30 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $260 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $6 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $29 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $23 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $5 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $5 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $59 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $15 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $7 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $63 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $183 4m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $27 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $24 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $7 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $152 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $87 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $0 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $9 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $19 5m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 100¢ $10 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62,418.49 · official $62,458.47 (match) · 3500 history records