trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 77¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-19%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $40 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $28 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Jun 29 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Jun 24 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? | May 08 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 08 | $5 | +$1 | +24% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | May 08 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? | May 07 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | May 05 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | Apr 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad | Apr 24 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Apr 23 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 23 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 18–25? | Apr 23 | $4 | −$1 | -32% |
| Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C | Apr 22 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 22 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs | Apr 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -11.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 0% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 0% | 0% | -10.9% |
| all | 26 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 31% | 4% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 4% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 4% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.9% |