Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x604c…3160 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$562 (+28%) realized +$567 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$612
14 days+$612
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$370
other 31% +$232
crypto 20% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +7.8% -2.5% 44% 41% +19.3%
≤30d 27 +7.8% -2.5% 44% 41% +19.3%
≤90d 27 +7.8% -2.5% 44% 41% +19.3%
all 27 +7.8% -2.5% 44% 41% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 41% +19.3%
10% -11.8% 41% +7.8%
15% -20.4% 37% -2.6%
20% -28.2% 37% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$21 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage7d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 26¢ 18¢ $19 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$68 +344%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$14 +72%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$92 +93%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$11 -38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$69 +69%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$56 +57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -88%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $432 +$127 +29%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $99 −$72 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$14 -63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$94 +474%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 −$18 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $411 +$5 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 +$92 +93%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $201 +$205 +102%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $64 +$90 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28m
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 26¢ $20 39m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $34 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $99 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $49 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $168 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $99 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $98 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $447 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $27 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $333 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $99 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $111 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.24 · official $24.98 (match) · 54 history records