Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x604e…f1cd other 544 markets active 3h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%301W / 232L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$37
14 days−$29
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$54
sports 25% −$132
politics 20% +$39
economics 14% +$230
finance 2% +$21
world 2% −$33
tech 2% +$11
crypto 2% −$11
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 45% -18.9%
≤30d 37 +9.7% -0.7% 49% 46% -9.1%
≤90d 199 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 44% -10.2%
all 533 -7.0% -15.9% 56% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 41% -9.3%
10% -23.9% 31% -18.0%
15% -31.3% 23% -25.9%
20% -38.0% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses301 / 232
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions10
Markets (closed)533 / 544
History coverage353d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $209 $180 −$29 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $89 $120 +$30 (+34%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 72¢ $44 $72 +$28 (+62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $59 +$10 (+20%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $32 −$28 (-48%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $13 $26 +$12 (+96%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 53¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $32 −$31 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $33 +$22 +66%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $80 −$4 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Jun 20 $25 +$25 +99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $17 +$13 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $65 +$10 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$9 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $68 −$6 -9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $57 +$8 +15%
Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $34 −$1 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $24 +$9 +36%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $35 −$15 -42%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $66 −$3 -4%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$24 +124%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $45 +$15 +32%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $24 −$24 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$15 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $107 −$10 -10%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $10 +$25 +252%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$14 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $75 +$29 +38%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 23 $106 +$19 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $31 +$24 +77%
Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 21 $11 −$10 -87%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 21 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 48¢ $2 18h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $76 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 50¢ $11 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 55¢ $6 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 57¢ $11 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 59¢ $1 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 99¢ $42 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 59¢ $24 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 61¢ $10 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both BUY 50¢ $25 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: BUY 27¢ $15 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 15¢ $1 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 15¢ $1 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 25¢ $5 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 49¢ $1 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 49¢ $7 42h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 56¢ $11 42h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $26 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $8 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $28 6d
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $35 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 81¢ $8 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.44 · official $566.44 · 1842 history records