Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x604f…f0ba other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$152 (-1%) realized −$178 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$735per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$20
14 days+$35
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$210
other 40% +$24
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.4% -1.9% 71% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +7.9% -2.3% 67% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 9 +7.9% -2.3% 67% 44% -10.8%
all 25 +4.5% -5.5% 60% 44% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 44% -10.6%
10% -14.5% 28% -19.2%
15% -22.8% 24% -27.0%
20% -30.4% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$61 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage200d
Avg bet$735
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 96¢ $208 $233 +$26 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $199 +$9 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $490 −$212 -43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $175 +$32 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,001 +$177 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$16 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $10,005 −$278 -3%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $847 +$8 +1%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 06 $52 +$3 +6%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 06 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Dec 31 $348 +$65 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $6 +$14 +244%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $37 +$6 +16%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 10 $25 +$10 +41%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Dec 07 $20 −$4 -22%
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 05 $409 −$44 -11%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 04 $50 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $209 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $176 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $207 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $175 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $174 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $181 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $131 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $106 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $638 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $178 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,652 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $247 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,839 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $98 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 8d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 84¢ $8,156 18d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $2 18d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.30 · official $233.30 (match) · 151 history records