Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x604f…7b62 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$151 (-13%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$205
14 days−$205
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$205
world 9% +$84
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -50.7% -55.4% 20% 20% -27.5%
≤30d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 17% 17% -28.2%
≤90d 7 -38.9% -44.7% 29% 29% -19.9%
all 7 -38.9% -44.7% 29% 29% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 29% -19.9%
10% -50.0% 29% -27.5%
15% -54.9% 29% -34.5%
20% -59.3% 29% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$79 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage93d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $519 −$126 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $210 −$207 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $254 +$180 +71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $104 +$84 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $393 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $210 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $164 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $435 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $224 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $42 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $248 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 41d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 91d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records