Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x604f…6335 crypto 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$538 (+4%) realized +$534 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%270W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$218
14 days+$58
30 days+$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 48% -18.8%
≤30d 135 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 61% -6.3%
≤90d 454 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 55% -8.3%
all 475 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 57% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 57% -7.2%
10% -17.7% 57% -16.1%
15% -25.7% 57% -24.2%
20% -32.9% 56% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$534
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses270 / 205
Open positions1
Markets (closed)475 / 476
History coverage93d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 52¢ 56¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $43 +$40 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $74 +$59 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $70 +$63 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$56 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$63 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$61 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $69 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $65 +$68 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$63 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $79 +$55 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $74 +$59 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$76 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$61 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $73 +$60 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $73 +$60 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $73 +$60 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $70 −$68 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$61 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $73 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $73 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $70 +$63 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$64 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$56 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $74 +$59 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$54 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$20 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$48 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$35 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $54 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $34 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $43 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $74 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $71 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $70 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $77 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $71 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $70 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $65 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $73 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $70 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $71 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $79 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $74 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $73 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $78 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $74 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $74 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $76 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $73 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.50 · official $55.50 (match) · 1127 history records