Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6051…3fcd sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$586 (-3%) realized −$586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate95%36W / 2L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$892
7 days−$780
14 days−$596
30 days−$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$722
other 13% +$139
crypto 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.9% -15.7% 91% 5% -15.0%
≤30d 38 +8.7% -1.7% 95% 11% -12.3%
≤90d 38 +8.7% -1.7% 95% 11% -12.3%
all 38 +8.7% -1.7% 95% 11% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 11% -12.3%
10% -11.1% 5% -20.7%
15% -19.7% 5% -28.3%
20% -27.6% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$521 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses36 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage28d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Atlanta Dream 10¢ 18¢ $143 $240 +$97 (+68%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 28 $1,604 +$33 +2%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $15 +$2 +14%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 27 $1,581 +$37 +2%
Montes vs. Kopp: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 27 $29 $0 +1%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $139 +$1 +1%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $987 +$30 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $787 +$15 +2%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) Jun 27 $175 +$2 +1%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 27 $19 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $972 +$9 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $952 +$19 +2%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 26 $32 $0 +1%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $943 +$9 +1%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $297 +$3 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $886 +$54 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $870 +$9 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $664 +$14 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $850 +$23 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $847 +$26 +3%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $829 +$17 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $781 +$48 +6%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $780 +$1 +0%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $771 +$8 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +396%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $810 +$35 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Volynets vs Birrell Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 02 $657 +$9 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $17 +$2 +13%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
ITF Kayseri: Pablo Perez Ramos vs Patrick Schoen May 31 $99 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 83¢ $50 7m
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Atlanta Dream 10¢ $147 13m
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 98¢ $172 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 98¢ $1,432 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $15 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $15 2h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 97¢ $5 9h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 98¢ $1,109 9h
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 97¢ $467 9h
Montes vs. Kopp: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 9h
Montes vs. Kopp: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $29 10h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $141 11h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 99¢ $139 11h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $205 13h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $576 13h
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $245 13h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 97¢ $987 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $50 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 98¢ $737 25h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 99¢ $175 25h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) BUY Chicago Sky 99¢ $19 25h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $981 25h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $972 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 98¢ $952 39h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $0 46h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $2 46h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $2 46h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $27 46h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $943 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.93 · official $289.93 (match) · 92 history records