Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x6053…581c crypto 305 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$335 (-0%) realized −$335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate74%226W / 79L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18,265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.9% -14.9% 71% 71% -14.6%
≤30d 125 -3.3% -12.5% 72% 72% -13.0%
≤90d 305 -1.7% -11.1% 74% 69% -10.9%
all 305 -1.7% -11.1% 74% 69% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 69% -10.9%
10% -19.6% 54% -19.5%
15% -27.4% 24% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$456 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses226 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage52d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $137 −$269 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $148 +$28 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $142 +$81 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$308 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $153 +$36 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $148 +$59 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $144 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $161 −$316 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $156 +$39 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $151 +$58 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $147 +$28 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $144 +$35 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $160 −$316 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $157 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $152 +$60 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET Jun 05 $147 +$37 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $142 +$57 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $137 +$48 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $132 +$43 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $129 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $126 +$31 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $140 −$276 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $137 +$34 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $152 −$300 -197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 03 $166 −$124 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $178 −$121 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $187 −$107 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET Jun 03 $203 −$133 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11AM ET Jun 03 $197 +$41 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET Jun 03 $193 +$45 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $213 −$191 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $205 +$75 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3AM ET Jun 03 $199 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET Jun 03 $214 −$140 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $194 +$78 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 03 $200 +$47 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7PM ET Jun 03 $196 +$51 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $211 −$141 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 02 $204 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 02 $197 +$66 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7AM ET Jun 02 $191 +$67 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 02 $186 +$38 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $180 +$68 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$14 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11PM ET Jun 02 $175 +$63 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $170 +$42 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $185 −$158 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $180 +$71 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $175 +$38 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8AM ET Jun 01 $171 +$34 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $177 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $148 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $223 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $142 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $158 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $189 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $153 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $207 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $148 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $171 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $144 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $161 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $195 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $156 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $209 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $151 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $147 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $180 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $144 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $160 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $192 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $157 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $212 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $152 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $184 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $147 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $199 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $142 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.28 · official $405.28 (match) · 614 history records