Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6054…6fb7 weather 61 markets active 2d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +8.8% -1.5% 100% 17% -1.2%
≤30d 45 -2.8% -12.0% 82% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 61 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 44% -12.2%
all 61 -0.8% -10.3% 80% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 44% -12.2%
10% -18.9% 8% -20.6%
15% -26.7% 3% -28.3%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage37d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 −$9 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $2 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $4 −$2 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 95¢ $10 39h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 82¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 82¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 57¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $24 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 83¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $19 9d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $17 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $16 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $14 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $13 14d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? SELL No 88¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records