trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 75% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 58% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | -5.7% | -14.7% | 46% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.7% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 55¢ | $53 | $54 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $52 | +$1 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 25 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $71 | +$2 | +2% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 24 | $51 | +$1 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $51 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 23 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? | Jun 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 07 | $14 | −$6 | -45% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 24 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Apr 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 23 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo | Apr 23 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 21 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in March? | Mar 28 | $2 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +2% |