Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

60
0x6056…c27c
world · 131 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$19,830 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,904 · open +$2,625
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$47,023
Realized+$16,904
Unrealized+$2,625
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses78 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)115 / 131
History coverage355d
Avg bet$2,221
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 16 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$802
7 days+$3,349
14 days+$4,866
30 days+$6,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 68¢ 79¢ $18,339 $21,156 +$2,817 (+15%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $11,276 $12,164 +$888 (+8%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $3,701 $3,858 +$157 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 53¢ 36¢ $5,435 $3,759 −$1,675 (-31%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 22¢ 80¢ $587 $2,121 +$1,534 (+261%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,829 $1,930 +$101 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $833 $835 +$2 (+0%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 74¢ 24¢ $1,179 $392 −$787 (-67%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $251 $270 +$19 (+7%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 73¢ 49¢ $320 $215 −$105 (-33%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 33¢ $64 $103 +$39 (+60%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? No 47¢ 67¢ $46 $66 +$20 (+43%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $421 $50 −$371 (-88%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $38 $21 −$18 (-46%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 48¢ 92¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+93%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $454 $0 −$454 (-100%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $356 $0 −$356 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $376 $0 −$376 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1,392 $0 −$1,392 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $255 $0 −$255 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $869 $0 −$869 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,698 +$802 +47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $8,198 +$537 +7%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 10 $859 +$310 +36%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 10 $1,916 +$821 +43%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 09 $239 −$51 -21%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$45 +244%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $144 +$884 +614%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $6,755 +$1,518 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $255 −$255 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $454 −$454 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $1,852 +$1,245 +67%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $270 +$660 +244%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,598 +$352 +22%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $252 −$195 -77%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 14 $666 −$279 -42%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $15,368 +$1,971 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $83 −$79 -95%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $37 +$163 +434%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $130 −$77 -60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 04 $26,587 +$4,261 +16%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $488 +$12 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $1,392 −$1,392 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $1,780 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Apr 23 $517 +$151 +29%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Apr 23 $772 +$63 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 23 $1,547 +$550 +36%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $210 +$390 +186%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $756 +$444 +59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $920 −$526 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $502 −$133 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $1,880 +$120 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 19 $5,900 −$2,564 -44%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 18 $430 −$430 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 18 $96 −$96 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $1,740 −$161 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $869 −$869 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $8,809 +$191 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 11 $130 +$80 +61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 11 $356 −$356 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 09 $98 +$30 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 09 $4,025 −$607 -15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Apr 09 $328 +$54 +16%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $101 +$183 +181%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $2 +$13 +572%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $280 +$1,720 +614%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$8,517
economics 18% +$5,902
other 16% +$5,788
politics 6% +$1,743
finance 5% −$2,937
tech 5% −$9
crypto 1% +$191
sports 1% +$600
culture 0% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $612 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1,777 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $113 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $113 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $113 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $16 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $94 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $2,597 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $8,735 2d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL No 98¢ $1,169 3d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 97¢ $2,737 3d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $188 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $64 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,028 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,467 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $74 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $14 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $104 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 11d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 12d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 12d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $668 12d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3,204 12d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 12d
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $392 12d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $172 12d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +138.5% +115.8% 86% 71% +13.7%
≤30d 13 +116.9% +96.2% 77% 69% +16.1%
≤90d 73 +29.6% +17.3% 55% 38% -2.7%
all 115 +23.2% +11.4% 68% 37% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.4% 37% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here +0.8% 24% -12.3%
15% -9.0% 19% -20.7%
20% -17.9% 14% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,022.88 · official $47,023.62 (match) · 1579 history records