Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6056…7c17 other 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-7%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$12
sports 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 24% -17.0%
≤30d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 24% -17.0%
≤90d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 24% -17.0%
all 21 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 24% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 24% -17.0%
10% -33.7% 24% -25.0%
15% -40.1% 24% -32.2%
20% -46.0% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$31 +80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +259%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $5 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records