Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6058…efe6 politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$66 (-4%) realized −$139 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$48
world 14% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.3% -3.0% 67% 33% -9.2%
≤30d 7 -40.7% -46.4% 29% 14% -18.0%
≤90d 7 -40.7% -46.4% 29% 14% -18.0%
all 7 -40.7% -46.4% 29% 14% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 14% -18.0%
10% -51.5% 0% -25.8%
15% -56.2% 0% -33.0%
20% -60.5% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$29 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage21d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 99¢ $225 $249 +$24 (+11%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 63¢ 89¢ $82 $115 +$33 (+41%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $29 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+183%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 09 $88 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $64 −$32 -50%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $4 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $157 −$104 -66%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 93¢ $5 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $11 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.35 · official $415.93 (match) · 387 history records