Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6058…5e02 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$17
crypto 24% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 38% -11.0%
≤30d 8 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 38% -11.0%
≤90d 8 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 38% -11.0%
all 8 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 38% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -11.0%
10% -21.6% 12% -19.6%
15% -29.2% 12% -27.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $114 +$4 +3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$7 -34%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $105 +$12 +12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 −$11 -55%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $55 −$8 -14%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $60 49m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $63 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $35 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $55 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $54 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $43 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 15h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $36 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 4¢ $47 25h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 41h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.29 · official $82.29 (match) · 56 history records