Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6059…8acd other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$25
politics 27% −$10
sports 15% +$26
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 126 +0.3% -9.2% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage133d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $651 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $444 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $347 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $488 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 14h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $188 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $188 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $259 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $259 26d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $222 27d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $222 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 28d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 29d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 30d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 30d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 31d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.98 · official $38.98 (match) · 363 history records