Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x605a…2b98 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-6%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate82%27W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$32
other 18% $0
tech 14% −$2
weather 7% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 12% -6.8%
≤30d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 12% -6.8%
≤90d 20 -15.7% -23.7% 80% 5% -26.3%
all 33 -10.0% -18.6% 82% 3% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 3% -15.2%
10% -26.4% 0% -23.3%
15% -33.5% 0% -30.7%
20% -40.0% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage156d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 100¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on April 21? Jun 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 21? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 21 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? Apr 21 $5 $0 +7%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31? Apr 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? Apr 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 21 $14 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Mar 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? Mar 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 11 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 26 $1 $0 -50%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? Feb 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 05 $11 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $14 +$1 +8%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $30 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 22 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $7 64d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 98¢ $9 64d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 64d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $11 64d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on April 21? BUY No 98¢ $8 64d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 64d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 64d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 64d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 88¢ $10 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 31? BUY No 93¢ $5 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 31? BUY No 99¢ $13 84d
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $8 104d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 104d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 104d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $13 104d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 104d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $13 104d
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? BUY No 95¢ $8 117d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $15 117d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 133d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 138d
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $22 138d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $25 138d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 138d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $15 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.10 · official $36.10 (match) · 68 history records