Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x605b…f596 weather 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%46W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$1
weather 12% +$2
other 9% +$1
world 8% +$3
finance 5% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 6 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 38 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 3% -9.1%
all 47 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.68 per $1 lost it wins $9.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses46 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage119d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 25 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 5? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 26? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 22 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 8? May 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on May 4? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 5? May 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $400 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 30 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ap Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on April 25? Apr 26 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 21? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 21? Apr 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 22? Apr 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 18? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on April 17? Apr 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on April 15? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 14? Apr 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on April 10? Apr 12 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 7? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 7? Apr 08 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 7? Apr 08 $103 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 03 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on March 15? Mar 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 15? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 57°F or below on March 15? Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 9-15? Mar 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 16? Mar 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February? Mar 14 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $88 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $93 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 22d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 34d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 34d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 43d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 45°F or below on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 46d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 46d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 99¢ $45 48d
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 53d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $70 53d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 55d
Will Google reach $400 in April? BUY No 99¢ $10 55d
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May BUY No 100¢ $45 55d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 55d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $20 55d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $116 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 59d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ap BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $115 62d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 64d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 65d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 65d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $62 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.26 · official $133.26 (match) · 142 history records