Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x605b…c58b other 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-15%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$32
sports 14% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 41% -24.7%
≤30d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 41% -24.7%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 41% -24.7%
all 17 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 41% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 41% -24.7%
10% -17.8% 35% -31.9%
15% -25.8% 35% -38.4%
20% -33.1% 29% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $11 −$5 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 34h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 38h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records