Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
60 0x6060…613f world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$72
sports 29% +$1
other 20% +$1
politics 7% −$3
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.2% +17.8% 43% 14% -4.8%
≤30d 20 +111.2% +91.1% 55% 20% -7.1%
≤90d 32 +69.6% +53.5% 50% 12% -8.7%
all 36 +61.9% +46.5% 47% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 11% -8.9%
10% +32.5% 6% -17.6%
15% +19.7% 6% -25.6%
20% +8.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +112% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage129d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $215 $215 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $213 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $206 +$1 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 +$53 +209%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $170 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $164 +$7 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $67 +$7 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $127 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 −$9 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $347 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $164 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $164 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $99 +$15 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $14 +$2 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $480 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Apr 27 $218 −$2 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $84 +$3 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $947 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $950 −$4 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,044 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $250 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $181 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $289 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Feb 10 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Feb 10 $1,218 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 10 $475 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $480 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $154 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $45 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $87 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $154 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $213 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $56 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $138 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $195 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $134 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $80 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $168 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 26¢ $46 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $104 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.62 · official $214.72 (match) · 168 history records